The Heat of the Herd in China
Some 35 years ago I wrote what many readers rated my best book. It wasn’t Wealth & Poverty or Life After Google.
Recounting the saga of entrepreneurs such as J.R. Simplot, the Idaho potato king who made McDonald’s possible, the Micron-Technology founder Parkinson twins, and Cubans reviving Miami, the book was titled the Spirit of Enterprise.
Republished a decade ago in an updated edition called Recapturing the Spirit of Enterprise, it prompted venerable Barron’s editor Gene Epstein to review it twice, in his evident belief I should have stopped writing in 1985 when I was still ahead.
That was before all that foolish futurist “cosm” stuff, Life After Television, and paradigm-pushing touted in Wired but scorned by Barron’s. Am I bitter or what?
One of my own favorite chapters of the Spirit of Enterprise was based on an autobiographical saga by John Masters, the swashbuckling Yale educated leader of Canadian Hunter Corporation. Canadian Hunter uncovered vast natural gas deposits in woebegone stretches of western Canada and the U.S.
As an entrepreneur the thing that Masters most feared was “the heat of the herd.” This is the uneasy sweaty sensation evoked when masses of investors follow your once lonely lead.
In my case, “the heat of the herd” became known as the “Gilder Effect”, as the Wall Street Journal dubbed the market’s response to my addition of new companies to my “Noggin Nine” of leading technology stock picks in the Gilder Technology Report of the 1990s and early 2000s.
The Gilder Effect was so pronounced that short-sellers were said to lie in wait for my stocks after my 106 thousand subscribers plunged into them.
In order to avoid such traffic jams and crackups, my publisher wants me to avoid naming specific stocks in this popular free Daily Prophecy, which now has more readers than my original Gilder’s Technology Report.
Thus, I save my particular picks for the smaller cohort of subscribers in my paid monthly report. I do the monthly with savvy author investor Steve Waite and the legendary editor and hedge fund partner Richard Vigilante. I reserve special private opportunities for purchasers of my Moonshots product that I do with star technology analyst and author John Schroeter.
Opportunity Lies in the World’s Leading Capitalist Country
Today I am feeling the “heat of the herd” big time as the mainstream media mimic my repeated prophecies on the epochal opportunities in capitalist China. Now that Trump seems to be anti-China, even Barron’s is urging subscribers to invest.
Recently touting China’s emergence as the world’s leading economy, Fortunereports that China now boasts more companies than the US in the Fortune 500 list of the largest global corporations. In a superbly researched issue, this usually conventional chronicle of business news as politically correct parables of “diversity,” “sustainability,” and ESG investing (Environmental, social, and governance fashions) makes a bold case for the breakout of Chinese capitalism as the epochal event of the era.
One thing safe to say about Chinese companies is that they have nothing to do with climate quackery, fashionable social causes, or mandated boardroom diversity.
The Trump Administration and its Democratic rivals both continue to fantasize about a fictional US lead in technology and claim preposterously that China has “stolen” some $300 billion of US intellectual property.
Even worse, we believe that we can protect our fake lead by barring US companies from the world’s leading technology markets in China. We also imagine that we can help US technology and security by barring Chinese companies such as Huawei from buying US chips.
These US chips are mostly fabricated in Taiwan, which someone should remind US politicians is not exactly part of California.
Rather than make an enemy of the world’s leading capitalist country, Americans who know what is good for them will invest in such companies and cooperate with China.
That the mainstream media is ahead of the Trump administration in recognizing this fact is conveying to my prophecy a rare sense of the “heat of the herd.”
We’ll explore this idea further in later Daily Prophecies.