David Stockman Refutes Bristling COVID Headlines
My statistical counsel and philosopher William Briggs cannot hold off the entire mob of media doomsayers all by himself.
He has his book to edit and his theology to expound.
So, for today’s COVID-19 lockdown denial, I will quote from the latest findings by the ever-superb David Stockman. The former Reagan budget director has been my inspiration and guide ever since early in the Reagan Administration when he passed out my book Wealth and Poverty to the entire Reagan cabinet and said it was “promethean in its power and insight.”
Afterward, we had a few tiffs over the effects of deficits, but I never doubted that Stockman is the ultimate master of the numbers involved in the public policy debate.
Yesterday, he refuted the bristling headlines everywhere from the Los Angeles Times to the Wall Street Journal, no less — from Florida to Texas, impaling us on alleged “spikes” and “surges” of COVID.
At the end of the day… the trend of the daily fatality rate does not lie. On a seven-day rolling average basis, it peaked at 2,210 on April 18, and had fallen to 605 as of yesterday — a 73% drop. Needless to say, the virus patrol keeps torturing the data until it finds something to sound the alarms about. But if you look at the CDC’s data in 10-day intervals on the two things that count — the infection rate per test and the mortality rate — it turns out that, thankfully, the Donald is correct. The COVID plague is passing. Here is the infection rate per test in 10-day intervals since March 25, when the total number of with-COVID deaths was still under 1,000.
The percentage of infected cases per test:
- 3/25-4/4: 19.8%
- 4/5-4/14: 20.0%
- 4/15-4/24: 16.3%
- 4/25-5/4: 11.7%
- 5/5-5/14: 7.8%
- 5/15-5/24: 5.8%
- 5/25-6/3: 5.0%
- 6/4-6/13: 4.5%
- 6/13-6/23: 5.3%
Likewise, the number of deaths per day have fallen on a similar path:
- 3/25-4/4: 802
- 4/5-4/14: 1,794
- 4/15-4/24: 2,162
- 4/25-5/4: 1,651
- 5/5-5/14: 1,727
- 5/15-5/24: 1,160
- 5/25-6/3: 1,000
- 6/4-6/13: 681
- 6/14-6/23: 547
With the daily death count during the last 10 days at the lowest level since the crisis began, it is obvious why we are suddenly getting all this brouhaha about a huge new COVID breakout: Namely, that’s what the virus patrol and its MSM shills do when the Black Plague narrative begins to visibly fail.
Just recall that infamous New York Times story on May 4 allegedly based on a leaked study from FEMA, which made huge projections for soaring June death and case counts:
As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70% increase from the current number of about 1,750. The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently. The numbers underscore a sobering reality: The United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks to try slowing the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make matters worse.”
Of course, the actual daily average numbers for the last 10 days were 82% and 87% lower, respectively:
- 547 deaths per day, not 3,000
- 26,510 new cases per day, not 200,000
The authors of this NYT bunkum of May 4 left no doubt as to the purpose of their scary “leaked” projections — which is exactly what the current “second wave” hysteria is about, as well. To wit, to keep the American people quarantined at home and fearing for their lives: The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways.
The statistical incompetence of the media is exhibited everywhere, from its trumpeting of spurious racial abuses to its alarms over rising sea levels in climate change. But nowhere have the effects been so catastrophic as on the continual inflation and panic over what history will record as just a bad flu year, turned by politicians into an epochal economic catastrophe.
Editor, Gilder’s Daily Prophecy